If You Don’t Build It... Mexican Mobility Following the U.S. Housing Bust

This paper demonstrates the importance of earnings-sensitive migration in response to local variation in labor demand. We use geographic variation in the depth of the housing bust to examine its effects on the migration of natives and Mexican-born individuals in the U.S. We find a strong effect of the housing bust on the location choices of Mexicans, with movement of Mexican population away from U.S. states facing the largest declines in construction and movement toward U.S. states facing smaller declines. This effect operated primarily through interstate migration of Mexicans previously residing in the U.S. and, to a lesser extent, through slower immigration rates from Mexico in states with larger housing declines. There is no evidence that return migration to Mexico played an important role in immigrants\u27 migration response. We also find no impact of the housing bust on natives\u27 location choices. We interpret these results as the causal impact of the housing bust on migration after confirming that they are robust to controls for immigrant diffusion and a pre-housing-bust false experiment

Trade Reform and Regional Dynamics: Evidence From 25 Years of Brazilian Matched Employer-Employee Data

We empirically study the dynamics of labor market adjustment following the Brazilian trade reform of the 1990s. We use variation in industry-specific tariff cuts interacted with initial regional industry mix to measure trade-induced local labor demand shocks, and then examine regional and individual labor market responses to those one-time shocks over two decades. Contrary to conventional wisdom, we do not find that the impact of local shocks is dissipated over time through wage-equalizing migration. Instead, we find steadily growing effects of local shocks on regional formal sector wages and employment for 20 years. This finding can be rationalized in a simple equilibrium model with two complementary factors of production, labor and industry-specific factors such as capital, that adjust slowly and imperfectly to shocks. Next, we document rich margins of adjustment induced by the trade reform at the regional and individual level. Workers initially employed in harder hit regions face continuously deteriorating formal labor market outcomes relative to workers employed in less affected regions, and this gap persists even 20 years after the beginning of trade liberalization. Negative local trade shocks induce workers to shift out of the formal tradable sector and into the formal nontradable sector. Non-employment strongly increases in harder-hit regions in the medium run, but in the longer run, non-employed workers eventually find re-employment in the informal sector. Working age population does not react to these local shocks, but formal sector net migration does, consistent with the relative decline of the formal sector and growth of the informal sector in adversely affected regions

Globalization and inequality in Latin America

We survey the recent literature studying the effects of globalization on inequality in Latin America. Our focus is on research emerging from the late 2000s onward, with an emphasis on empirical work considering new mechanisms, studying new dimensions of inequality, and developing new methodologies to capture the many facets of globalization’s relationship to inequality. After summarizing both design-based and quantitative work in this area, we propose directions for future work. Our overarching recommendation is that researchers develop unifying frameworks to help synthesize the results of individual studies that focus on distinct aspects of globalization’s relationship to inequality

The China shock and employment in portuguese firms

This paper considers the effects of Chinese import competition on firm-level labor market outcomes in Portugal. We examine direct competition in the Portuguese market and indirect competition Portugal's largest export markets in Western Europe. Using rich employer-employee data matched to firm-level trade transactions, we measure the degree to which different Portuguese firms faced Chinese import competition, based on firm product mix and distribution of sales across countries. We find economically and statistically significant employment declines in firms with more exposure to Chinese competition in European export markets, but minimal effects of direct competition in Portugal. Our findings also suggest a centrally important role for Portugal's stringent labor market regulations in limiting firms' ability to adjust to competitive shocks. In our earlier sample period (1995-2000), firms have limited ability to adjust employment, hours, or wages, and the primary adjustment margin is firm exit. In the later period (2000-2007), when more flexible temporary contracts comprise a larger share of employment, we find employment reductions among more exposed firms. Those employment reductions are entirely accounted for by changes in temporary employment, with no effect on permanent employment. We expect these findings to be informative for other peripheral European countries that had specialized in labor-intensive manufacturing industries operating under inflexible labor market regimes.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Social learning along international migrant networks

We document the transmission of social distancing practices from the United States to Mexico along migrant networks during the early 2020 Covid-19 pandemic. Using data on pre-existing migrant connections between Mexican and U.S. locations and mobile-phone tracking data revealing social distancing behavior, we find larger declines in mobility in Mexican regions whose emigrants live in U.S. locations with stronger social distancing practices. We document the absence of confounding pre-trends and use a variety of controls to rule out the potential influence of disease transmission, migrant sorting between similar locations, and remittances. Given this evidence, we conclude that our findings represent the effect of information transmission between Mexican migrants living in the U.S. and residents of their home locations in Mexico. Our results demonstrate the importance of personal connections when policymakers seek to change fundamental social behaviors

Overestimating the Effect of Complementarity on Skill Demand

Abstract Many recent studies estimate cost function parameters to measure the influence of capitalskill complementarity on changes in skill demand. This paper argues that standard cost function estimates assuming quasi-fixed capital systematically overestimate the effect of complementarity when subject to skill-biased technological change. While previous work has considered bias due to measurement error or general endogeneity concerns, this paper shows that upward bias results directly from cost minimizing behavior. I also develop a novel instrumental variables strategy based on the tax treatment of capital to more accurately measure the effect of complementarity. Although somewhat imprecise, the IV results support the model's prediction that the standard approach overestimates the effect of complementarity

Overestimating the Effect of Complementarity on Skill Demand

Many recent studies estimate cost function parameters to measure the influence of capital-skill complementarity on changes in skill demand. This paper argues that standard cost function estimates assuming quasi-fixed capital systematically overestimate the effect of complementarity when subject to skill-biased technological change. While previous work has considered bias due to measurement error or general endogeneity concerns, this paper shows that upward bias results directly from cost minimizing behavior. I also develop a novel instrumental variables strategy based on the tax treatment of capital to more accurately measure the effect of complementarity. Although somewhat imprecise, the IV results support the model's prediction that the standard approach overestimates the effect of complementarity.